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  • US Gross Domestic Product: 3rd Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate)

    National Income and Product Accounts
    Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate)

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of
    2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the
    second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

    The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data
    that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the
    Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete
    data, will be released on November 29, 2017.


    The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption
    expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal
    government spending. These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from residential
    fixed investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
    calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

    The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in
    nonresidential fixed investment, and in exports that were partly offset by an acceleration in private
    inventory investment and a downturn in imports.

    Current-dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent, or $245.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $19,495.5
    billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $192.3 billion (table 1 and
    table 3).

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with
    an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent,
    compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
    increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent (appendix table A).

    Personal Income (table 10)

    Current-dollar personal income increased $113.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase
    of $119.1 billion in the second. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected decelerations in
    personal dividend income, in rental income, and in wages and salaries that were offset by an
    acceleration in government social benefits, a smaller decrease in personal interest income, an
    acceleration in nonfarm proprietors’ income, and a smaller decrease in farm proprietors’ income.

    Disposable personal income increased $73.6 billion, or 2.1 percent, in the third quarter, compared with
    an increase of $125.1 billion, or 3.6 percent, in the second. Real disposable personal income increased
    0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent.

    Personal saving was $494.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with $545.6 billion in the second. The
    personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.4 percent
    in the third quarter, compared with 3.8 percent in the second.

    Source Data for the Advance Estimate

    Information on the source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted
    with the news release on BEA’s Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also
    posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section
    that follows.

    * * *


    Next release: November 29, 2017 at 8:30 A.M. EST
    Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate)
    Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 2017 (Preliminary Estimate)

    Release Dates in 2018

    Estimate 2017: IV and annual 2018: I 2018: II 2018: III
    Gross Domestic Product
    Advance January 26 April 27 July 27 October 26
    Second February 28 May 30 August 29 November 28
    Third March 28 June 28 September 27 December 21

    Corporate Profits
    Preliminary … May 30 August 29 November 28
    Revised March 28 June 28 September 27 December 21


    Additional Information

    Resources

    Additional resources available at www.bea.gov:
    • Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email
    subscription service
    , or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News.
    • Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
    • Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API).
    • For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
    • BEA's news release schedule
    NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

    Definitions

    Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy
    less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal
    consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and
    government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

    Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is,
    at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
    Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
    The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by
    U.S. residents.

    The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services
    purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”

    Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from
    participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of
    financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from
    domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or
    losses.

    Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to
    personal income less personal current taxes.

    Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and
    personal current transfer payments.

    Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.
    The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. (For a
    comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts (NIPAs) with personal
    saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States, go to
    www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

    For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.


    Statistical conventions

    Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless
    otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For
    detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?

    Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual
    rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?

    Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index
    numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are
    calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent
    periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by
    multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and
    then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels
    are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.

    Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those
    of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference
    between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.


    Updates to GDP

    BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are
    released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data
    that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates
    are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed
    and more comprehensive data as they become available.

    Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at
    least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available
    major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.
    Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major
    periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
    The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between
    different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

    Vintage Average Revision Without Regard to Sign
    (percentage points, annual rates)
    Advance to second 0.5
    Advance to third 0.6
    Second to third 0.2
    Advance to latest 1.3
    Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2016. For more information on GDP
    updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site.

    The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic
    comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.

    Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic
    profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these
    data are not available until the third estimate.
    This article was originally published in forum thread: US Gross Domestic Product: 3rd Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate) started by bea.gov View original post
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